Future Studies, Foresight and Scenarios as basis for better strategic decisions

Table of Contents:
1. ABSTRACT.
2. INTRODUCTION: FORESIGHT - EVOLUTION OF A FIELD.
2.1 HISTORY.
2.2 DEFINITION.
2.3 FORESIGHT IN PRACTICE.
2.4 FORESIGHT AND FUTURE STUDIES AT MARINTEK.
3. SCENARIO - A POWERFUL METHOD FOR FORESIGHT AND STRATEGIC PLANNING.
3.1 DEFINITION AND PURPOSE.
3.2 BENEFIT OF SCENARIO-PLANNING.
3.3 EVOLUTION OF SCENARIO-PLANNING.
3.3.1 History of use of Scenarios.
3.3.2 Main schools of scenario-planning.
3.4 SCENARIO BUILDING AND PLANNING IN PRACTICE.
4. SCENARIO-BUILDING: METHODOLOGY USED AT MARINTEK.
4.1 10 YEARS OF SCENARIO BUILDING FOR THE MARITIME INDUSTRY AT MARINTEK.
4.2 SCENARIO METHODOLOGY.
17 4.2.1 Phase 0: Establish focus.
4.2.2 Phase 1: Insight / Industry understanding.
4.2.3 Phase 2: Identify driving forces of change.
4.2.4 Phase 3: Develop Scenario Logic and Scenarios.
4.2.5 Phase 4: Assess Scenarios.
4.3 SCENARIO PROCESS.
5. CONCLUSION.